COPENHAGEN — You can feel the anxiety and anticipation rising in the conference center as the fault lines become more distinct and several entities attempt to resurrect negotiations. It’s Wednesday morning in Copenhagen. There are far less nongovernmental organizations, a lot more press, and sightings of presidents and prime ministers scuttling to meetings. It’s difficult to make sense of everything that is taking place at these talks. But one thing is clear: The sense of urgency has heightened, and time is running out for nations to strike a deal.
Countries are divided along fairly typical lines — global north vs. global south, rich vs. poor. The more than 100 countries in the developing world want advanced developed nations to commit to deeper emissions reductions and more money to finance adaptation and mitigation — essentially a continuation of the Kyoto Protocol. So far, the only country to commit to emission cuts along the lines of United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommendations is Norway . Developed countries have committed to a numerical amount for “fast track” (10 billion U.S. dollars for three years) climate funding, but so far have been silent on long-term figures.
The U.S. has shied away from a more ambitious commitment because of domestic political constraints. The EU is willing to commit to a 30 percent cut from 1990 levels, but only if other developed nations commit to that number as well. On the financing front, the US has balked at the notion that it’ll finance China to adapt to climate change.
This may seem like a redux of disagreements from three weeks ago — even three months ago — but they have still not been resolved in Copenhagen. Most heads of states have arrived by now, with anticipation growing for President Obama’s arrival on Friday. Because so much disagreement still remains, the final deal will probably reflect the commitments each country put on the table prior to the conference. And it’s likely the entire conference process will continue along a two-track pathway.
Whatever the final shape the Copenhagen agreement takes, it is absolutely necessary that it include a time line and a deadline for when a legally binding agreement will be signed. There are many outstanding issues that need to be resolved, climate finance being only one of them. But to leave Copenhagen without a deadline for a legally binding agreement would essentially be a failure.
Outside of the conference, many NGOs who are not allowed inside have been protesting, leading to many arrests. The UN has severely cut the number of civil society participants that can enter the Bella Center, where the conference is taking place. While 45,000 people were accredited to attend the conference, the conference center can only accommodate 15,000 people. The first week and on Monday of this week, no restrictions were placed on attendance. As heads of states arrive, the security has tightened.
—by Simeon Talley
